picks
i announced at the dinner table that i had "forgotten" who's turn it was to pick where we go out for dinner this week. 'course i didn't really forget that it was g's turn. i said i'm thinking of a number from 1 to 4. whoever guesses correctly gets to pick. b says 3! i shook my head sadly and winked at him. g says 2! correct! where are we going? he picked sushi of course. so anywho. if this game was fair, would it be fair? i mean, suppose i wrote the number on a piece of paper before anyone made their guess. is the probability of winning the pick the same regardless of whether you guess first, second, third, or fourth?