statistics
statistics are deceptively complicated math. all you're doing is adding and averaging numbers. right? yeah, well. there's a whole lot more to it. some people have great confidence in their ability to create and understand statistics. and they can pass themselves off as top notch economists, scientists, debunkers, etc. pretty easily in fact. because statistics is that hard and that subtle. okay. so if you're talking to a guy who sounds like he might know what he's talking about but you're not sure. apply this test. steer the conversation to vegas. see if the guy thinks he can make money gambling at games of chance. like slots, roulette, blackjack, etc. if so then smile and nod for the rest of the conversation. his credibility is zero. that doesn't mean that his positions aren't correct. they could be by luck.