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Timmerov's Blog
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
  pigeons
are you smarter than a pigeon? consider the price is right game. three boxes. one randomly selected box has a yummy pigeon treat hidden inside. the others are empty. pick a box. one of the other boxes is shown to be empty. again, pick a box. you can pick the same box or switch your pick to the other box. what do you do? every pigeon figures out they get twice as many treats if they always switch boxes. but one in three people do not. ie they never learn. which strikes me as quite remarkable. clearly nobody is stupider than a pigeon. they must have outsmarted themselves somehow. ie they never get their mental model to match up with reality. which makes one wonder. is there some sort of evolutionary pressure to stay the course (or wander off into the weeds) when all available evidence is to the contrary? could be. yeah things are bad here and look better there now but if you go there you'll die when things reverse again. hrm. or maybe it's a herd mentality thing. ie mindlessly follow the leader no matter where they go. like hitler. or jesus. and the assumption is most leaders will be from the critical thinker group. could eliminate energy wasted arguing. and provide each "smart" person with an extra hand. works for me. so in a democratic group of 99 people, a coalition of 17 "smart" people plus all 33 "followers" can rule the other 49 "smart" people. which would be just fine if those 17 are altruistic folks dedicated to the betterment of society. like say the founding fathers. it'd be just awful if they're a bunch of greedy bastards. like say the tax cuts for the rich crowd.
 




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