value of consensus
suppose you're an astronaut. some 31,000 scientists say your rocket will fly. however, none of them are rocket scientists. they in fact have a bachelor of science degree in some field not related to rocketry. like say - weather, climate, bridges, archeology, business, psychology, etc. suppose further there are 30 scientists with phds in rocket science. these 30 say the rocket *won't* fly. it'll blow up or malfunction or doesn't have enough fuel to reach orbit or otherwise fail catastrophically. killing everyone on board. would you get in that tiny capsule-like craft at the top of this thing the overwhelming consensus of scientists say will carry you safely? or would you trust the folks who actually study such things, and pass? you probably wouldn't go anywhere near it. so riddle me this. when 97% of people who study climate say human activities are warming the globe, and when 80% of people who study weather say the exact same thing, why would some 43% of lay people say they believe the opposite? if only we could put them in that rocket. and let them blow up. unfortunately, we're all in the same rocket. and we all blow up together.